Isibikezelo semakethe yokugcina amandla yomhlaba wonke ngo-2023

Izindaba Zenethiwekhi Yobuhlakani Bebhizinisi LaseShayina: Ukugcinwa kwamandla kubhekisela ekugcinweni kwamandla kagesi, okuhlobene nobuchwepheshe kanye nezilinganiso zokusebenzisa izindlela zamakhemikhali noma zomzimba ukugcina amandla kagesi nokuwakhipha lapho kudingeka. Ngokwendlela yokugcina amandla, ukugcinwa kwamandla kungahlukaniswa kube ukugcinwa kwamandla omshini, ukugcinwa kwamandla kagesi, ukugcinwa kwamandla kagesi, ukugcinwa kwamandla okushisa kanye nokugcinwa kwamandla amakhemikhali. Ukugcinwa kwamandla kuba ngolunye lobuchwepheshe obubalulekile obusetshenziswa amazwe amaningi ukukhuthaza inqubo yokungathathi hlangothi kwekhabhoni. Ngisho nangaphansi kwengcindezi ephindwe kabili yobhubhane lwe-COVID-19 kanye nokuntuleka kochungechunge lokuhlinzekwa, imakethe yokugcina amandla amasha emhlabeni wonke isazoqhubeka nokukhula okuphezulu ngo-2021. Idatha ikhombisa ukuthi ekupheleni kuka-2021, amandla afakiwe ahlanganisiwe amaphrojekthi okugcina amandla aseqalile ukusebenza emhlabeni angama-209.4GW, akhuphuke ngo-9% ngonyaka; Phakathi kwawo, amandla afakiwe amaphrojekthi okugcina amandla amasha aqalisiwe ukusebenza ayengu-18.3GW, akhuphuke ngo-185% ngonyaka. Njengoba kuthintekile ukwenyuka kwamanani kagesi eYurophu, kulindeleke ukuthi isidingo sokugcina amandla sizoqhubeka nokukhula eminyakeni embalwa ezayo, futhi amandla ahlanganisiwe okufakwa kwamaphrojekthi okugcina amandla aseqalile ukusebenza emhlabeni azofinyelela ku-228.8GW ngo-2023.

Imboni engaba khona

1. Izinqubomgomo ezithandekayo

Ohulumeni bezomnotho ezinkulu bamukele izinqubomgomo zokukhuthaza ukuthuthukiswa kokugcinwa kwamandla. Isibonelo, e-United States, isikweletu sentela yokutshalwa kwezimali sikahulumeni sinikeza isikweletu sentela sokufakwa kwemishini yokugcina amandla ngabasebenzisi bokugcina basemakhaya kanye nabezimboni kanye nabezentengiselwano. E-EU, i-2030 Battery Innovation Roadmap igcizelela izinyathelo ezahlukahlukene zokukhuthaza indawo kanye nokuthuthukiswa okukhulu kobuchwepheshe bokugcina amandla. E-China, Uhlelo Lokusebenza Lokuthuthukiswa Kokugcinwa Kwamandla Amasha kuHlelo Lweminyaka Emihlanu Lwe-14 olwakhishwa ngo-2022 lwabeka phambili izinqubomgomo nezinyathelo eziphelele zokukhuthaza imboni yokugcina amandla ukuthi ingene esigabeni sokuthuthukiswa okukhulu.

2. Isabelo samandla azinzile ekukhiqizeni ugesi siyanda

Njengoba amandla omoya, i-photovoltaic kanye nezinye izindlela zokukhiqiza amandla zincike kakhulu endaweni yokukhiqiza amandla, ngokwanda kancane kancane kwesilinganiso samandla amasha njengomoya kanye namandla elanga, uhlelo lwamandla luveza ukungahleleki okuphindwe kabili, ukuphakama okuphindwe kabili kanye nohlangothi oluphindwe kabili, okubeka phambili izidingo eziphakeme zokuphepha nokuzinza kwegridi yamandla, futhi imakethe ikhulisile isidingo sokugcina amandla, ukushefa okuphezulu, ukuguqulwa kwamavayisi, kanye nokusebenza okuzinzile. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ezinye izifunda zisabhekene nenkinga yesilinganiso esiphezulu sokuyeka ukukhanya nogesi, njengeQinghai, i-Inner Mongolia, i-Hebei, njll. Ngokwakhiwa kweqoqo elisha lezisekelo ezinkulu zokukhiqiza amandla e-photovoltaic, kulindeleke ukuthi ukukhiqizwa kwamandla amasha axhunywe kugridi yamandla kuzoletha ingcindezi enkulu ekusetshenzisweni nasekusetshenzisweni kwamandla amasha esikhathini esizayo. Ingxenye yokukhiqizwa kwamandla amasha asekhaya kulindeleke ukuthi idlule u-20% ngo-2025. Ukukhula okusheshayo kwamandla amasha afakiwe kuzoqhuba ukwanda kokungena kwamandla okugcina amandla.

3. Isidingo samandla siphendukela kumandla ahlanzekile ngaphansi komkhuba wokufakwa kukagesi

Ngaphansi komkhuba wokufakwa kukagesi, isidingo samandla siye sashintsha kancane kancane sisuka emandleni endabuko njengamafutha asetshenziswayo kuya emandleni kagesi ahlanzekile. Lokhu kushintsha kubonakala ekushintsheni kusuka ezimotweni zikaphethiloli kuya ezimotweni zikagesi, eziningi zazo ezisebenzisa amandla avuselelekayo asatshalaliswayo. Njengoba ugesi ohlanzekile uba amandla abaluleke kakhulu, isidingo sokugcina amandla sizoqhubeka nokukhula ukuze kuxazululwe izinkinga ngezikhathi ezithile futhi kulinganiswe ukunikezwa kanye nesidingo sikagesi.

4. Ukwehla kwezindleko zokugcina amandla

Isilinganiso somhlaba wonke se-LCOE sokugcina amandla sehle sisuka ku-2.0 saya ku-3.5 yuan/kWh ngo-2017 saya ku-0.5 saya ku-0.8 yuan/kWh ngo-2021, futhi kulindeleke ukuthi sehle kakhulu siye ku-[0.3 saya ku-0.5 yuan/kWh ngo-2026. Ukwehla kwezindleko zokugcina amandla kubangelwa kakhulu yintuthuko yobuchwepheshe bebhethri, okuhlanganisa ukuthuthukiswa kobuningi bamandla, ukwehla kwezindleko zokukhiqiza kanye nokwanda komjikelezo wokuphila kwebhethri. Ukwehla okuqhubekayo kwezindleko zokugcina amandla kuzokhuthaza ukukhula kwemboni yokugcina amandla.

Ukuze uthole ulwazi olwengeziwe, sicela ubheke uMbiko Wocwaningo Ngethemba Lemakethe kanye Namathuba Okutshalwa Kwezimali Embonini Yokugcina Amandla Yomhlaba Wonke ekhishwe yi-China Commercial Industry Research Institute. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, i-China Commercial Industry Research Institute iphinde inikeze izinsizakalo ezifana ne-industrial data big, i-industrial intelligence, umbiko wocwaningo lwezimboni, ukuhlela izimboni, ukuhlela amapaki, uhlelo lweminyaka emihlanu lweshumi nane, ukutshalwa kwezimali kwezimboni kanye nezinye izinsizakalo.