Isibikezelo semakethe yokugcina amandla emhlabeni wonke ngo-2023

I-China Business Intelligence Network News: Ukugcinwa kwamandla kubhekisela ekugcinweni kwamandla kagesi, okuhlobene nobuchwepheshe kanye nezinyathelo zokusebenzisa izindlela zamakhemikhali noma ezingokwenyama ukugcina amandla kagesi nokuyikhulula lapho kudingeka. Ngokwendlela yokugcina amandla, isitoreji samandla singahlukaniswa sibe yimishini yokugcina amandla, isitoreji samandla kagesi, isitoreji samandla e-electrochemical, isitoreji samandla ashisayo kanye nokugcinwa kwamandla amakhemikhali.Isitoreji samandla siba omunye wezobuchwepheshe obuyinhloko obusetshenziswa amazwe amaningi ukukhuthaza inqubo yokungathathi hlangothi kwe-carbon. Ngisho nangaphansi kwengcindezi ekabili yobhubhane lwe-COVID-19 kanye nokushoda kwe-supply chain, imakethe yomhlaba wonke yokugcina amandla isazoqhubeka nokukhula okuphezulu ngo-2021. Imininingwane ibonisa ukuthi ekupheleni kuka-2021, umthamo ofakiwe ohlanganisiwe wamaphrojekthi okugcina amandla aqaliswe ukusebenza emhlabeni ngu-209.4GW, ekhuphuka ngo-9% unyaka nonyaka; Phakathi kwazo, amandla afakiwe amaphrojekthi amasha okugcina amandla aqalisiwe abe ngu-18.3GW, akhuphuke ngo-185% unyaka nonyaka. Ethintwe ukukhuphuka kwamanani entengo yamandla eYurophu, kulindeleke ukuthi isidingo sokugcinwa kwamandla sizoqhubeka sikhula eminyakeni embalwa ezayo, futhi umthamo ofakiwe ohlanganisiwe wamaphrojekthi okugcina amandla aqaliswe ukusebenza emhlabeni uzofinyelela ku-228.8GW ngo-2023.

Ithemba lemboni

1. Izinqubomgomo ezivumayo

Ohulumeni beminotho emikhulu bamukele izinqubomgomo zokukhuthaza ukuthuthukiswa kokugcinwa kwamandla. Isibonelo, e-United States, ikhredithi yentela yokutshalwa kwezimali yenhlangano ihlinzeka ngekhredithi yentela yokufakwa kwezinto zokulondoloza amandla ngabasebenzisi bokugcina bendlu nabezimboni nezezentengiselwano. E-EU, i-2030 Battery Innovation Roadmap igcizelela izinyathelo ezihlukahlukene zokugqugquzela ukwenziwa kwasendaweni nokuthuthukiswa okukhulu kobuchwepheshe bokugcina amandla. E-China, Ukuqaliswa Kohlelo Lokuthuthukiswa Kwesitoreji Esisha Samandla Ohlelweni Lweminyaka Eyi-14 Lweminyaka Emihlanu olwakhishwa ngowezi-2022 lwabeka izinqubomgomo eziphelele nezinyathelo zokukhuthaza imboni yokugcina amandla ukuze ingene esigabeni esikhulu sokuthuthukiswa.

2. Isabelo samandla esimeme ekuphehleni kukagesi siyakhula

Njengamandla omoya, i-photovoltaic nezinye izindlela zokuphehla amandla zincike kakhulu endaweni yokuphehla ugesi, ngokukhula kancane kancane kwengxenye yamandla amasha njengomoya namandla elanga, uhlelo lwamandla luveza ukungahleliwe okuphindwe kabili, okuphezulu okuphindwe kabili nokwezinhlangothi ezimbili, okubeka phambili izidingo eziphakeme zokuvikeleka nokuzinza kwegridi yamandla, futhi imakethe ikhulise isidingo sokugcina amandla, ukugcinwa kwamandla kanye nokusebenza okuphezulu. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ezinye izifunda zisabhekene nenkinga yezinga eliphezulu lokukhanya nokulahlwa kukagesi, njenge-Qinghai, i-Inner Mongolia, i-Hebei, njll. Ngokwakhiwa kweqoqo elisha lezisekelo zokukhiqiza amandla amakhulu omoya we-photovoltaic, kulindeleke ukuthi ukukhiqizwa kwamandla amakhulu axhunywe kugridi kuzoletha ingcindezi enkulu ekusetshenzisweni nasekusetshenzisweni kwamandla amasha esikhathini esizayo. Ingxenye yokuphehlwa kukagesi omusha wasekhaya kulindeleke ukuba idlule kuma-20% ngowezi-2025.

3. Isidingo samandla siphenduka sibe amandla ahlanzekile ngaphansi kwendlela yokufakwa kukagesi

Ngaphansi kokuthambekela kokufakwa kukagesi, isidingo samandla sishintshile kancane sisuka emandleni endabuko njengamafutha ezinto ezimbiwa phansi saya ekuhlanzeni amandla kagesi. Lolu shintsho lubonakala ekushintsheni ezimotweni zikaphethiloli ziye ezimotweni zikagesi, eziningi zazo ezixhaswe amandla avuselelekayo asatshalaliswa. Njengoba ugesi ohlanzekile uba amandla abaluleke kakhulu, isidingo sokugcinwa kwamandla sizoqhubeka sikhuphuka ukuze kuxazululwe izinkinga zesikhashana kanye nokulinganisa ukuhlinzekwa kanye nesidingo sikagesi.

4. Ukwehla kwezindleko zokugcina amandla

Isilinganiso somhlaba wonke se-LCOE sokugcinwa kwamandla sehlile sisuka ku-2.0 saya ku-3.5 yuan/kWh ngo-2017 saya ku-0.5 saya ku-0.5 yuan/kWh ngo-2021, futhi kulindeleke ukuthi siqhubeke sehle siye ku-[0.3 siye ku-0.5 yuan/kWh ngo-2026. ukuncishiswa kwezindleko zokukhiqiza kanye nokwenyuka komjikelezo wempilo yebhethri. Ukwehla okuqhubekayo kwezindleko zokugcina amandla kuzogqugquzela ukukhula kwemboni yokugcina amandla.

Ukuze uthole ulwazi olwengeziwe, sicela ubheke Umbiko Wokucwaninga Ngethemba Lemakethe Namathuba Otshalomali Womkhakha Wokugcina Amandla Womhlaba Wonke okhishwe yi-China Commercial Industry Research Institute. Ngaso leso sikhathi, i-China Commercial Industry Research Institute iphinde ihlinzeke ngezinsizakalo ezifana nedatha enkulu yezimboni, ubuhlakani bezimboni, umbiko wocwaningo lwezimboni, ukuhlelwa kwezimboni, ukuhlelwa kwepaki, Uhlelo Lweminyaka Eyishumi Nane, ukutshalwa kwezimali kwezimboni nezinye izinsiza.