Uqikelelo lwemarike yokugcina amandla yehlabathi ngo-2023

Iindaba zeNethiwekhi yoBuchule beShishini laseTshayina: Ukugcinwa kwamandla kubhekisa kukugcinwa kwamandla ombane, okunxulumene netekhnoloji kunye neendlela zokulinganisa zokusebenzisa iikhemikhali okanye iindlela zomzimba ukugcina amandla ombane nokuwakhupha xa kufuneka. Ngokwendlela yokugcina amandla, ukugcinwa kwamandla kunokwahlulwahlulwa kube kukugcinwa kwamandla oomatshini, ukugcinwa kwamandla kagesi, ukugcinwa kwamandla e-electrochemical, ukugcinwa kwamandla obushushu kunye nokugcinwa kwamandla eekhemikhali. Ukugcinwa kwamandla kuba yenye yeendlela eziphambili ezisetyenziswa ngamazwe amaninzi ukukhuthaza inkqubo yokungathathi cala kwekhabhoni. Nokuba phantsi koxinzelelo oluphindwe kabini lobhubhane we-COVID-19 kunye nokunqongophala kwekhonkco lokubonelela, imakethi yokugcina amandla amatsha yehlabathi iya kuhlala ikhula kakhulu ngo-2021. Idatha ibonisa ukuba ekupheleni kuka-2021, amandla afakiweyo aqokelelweyo eeprojekthi zokugcina amandla eziqalisiweyo kwihlabathi yi-209.4GW, ukunyuka nge-9% ngonyaka; Phakathi kwazo, amandla afakiweyo eeprojekthi zokugcina amandla amatsha eziqalisiweyo yayiyi-18.3GW, ukunyuka nge-185% ngonyaka. Ngenxa yokunyuka kwamaxabiso amandla eYurophu, kulindeleke ukuba imfuno yokugcina amandla iqhubeke ikhula kwiminyaka embalwa ezayo, kwaye amandla afakiweyo eeprojekthi zokugcina amandla aqalisiweyo ehlabathini aya kufikelela kwi-228.8GW ngo-2023.

Amathuba oshishino

1. Imigaqo-nkqubo efanelekileyo

Oorhulumente bezoqoqosho ezinkulu bamkele imigaqo-nkqubo yokukhuthaza uphuhliso lokugcina amandla. Umzekelo, eMelika, irhafu yotyalo-mali karhulumente inika irhafu yokufaka izixhobo zokugcina amandla ngabasebenzisi bokugqibela basekhaya nabemizi-mveliso kunye nabarhwebi. Kwi-EU, i-2030 Battery Innovation Roadmap igxininisa amanyathelo ahlukeneyo okukhuthaza indawo kunye nophuhliso olukhulu lwetekhnoloji yokugcina amandla. E-China, iSicwangciso sokuPhunyezwa koPhuhliso loLondolozo lwaMandla amatsha kwiSicwangciso se-14 seMinyaka emihlanu esakhutshwa ngo-2022 sabeka phambili imigaqo-nkqubo ebanzi kunye namanyathelo okukhuthaza ishishini lokugcina amandla ukuba lingene kwinqanaba lophuhliso olukhulu.

2. Isabelo samandla azinzileyo ekuvelisweni kwamandla siyanda

Njengoko amandla omoya, i-photovoltaic kunye nezinye iindlela zokuvelisa amandla zixhomekeke kakhulu kwindawo yokuvelisa amandla, kunye nokwanda kancinci kwenani lamandla amatsha afana namandla omoya kunye nelanga, inkqubo yamandla inika ukungangqinelani okuphindwe kabini, ukuphakama kabini kunye namacala amabini, okubeka phambili iimfuno eziphezulu zokhuseleko kunye nokuzinza kwegridi yamandla, kwaye imakethi inyuse imfuno yokugcina amandla, ukucheba okuphezulu, ukuguqulwa kwamaza, kunye nokusebenza okuzinzileyo. Kwelinye icala, ezinye iindawo zisajongene nengxaki yesantya esiphezulu sokuyeka ukukhanya kunye nombane, njengeQinghai, Inner Mongolia, Hebei, njl. Ngokwakhiwa kweqela elitsha leziseko zokuvelisa amandla amakhulu e-photovoltaic, kulindeleke ukuba ukuveliswa kwamandla amatsha amakhulu aqhagamshelwe kwigridi yamandla kuya kuzisa uxinzelelo olukhulu ekusetyenzisweni nasekusetyenzisweni kwamandla amatsha kwixesha elizayo. Umlinganiselo wokuveliswa kwamandla amatsha asekhaya kulindeleke ukuba udlule kwi-20% ngo-2025. Ukukhula ngokukhawuleza kwamandla amatsha afakelweyo kuya kuqhuba ukwanda kokungena kwamandla okugcina amandla.

3. Imfuno yamandla ijika ibe ngamandla acocekileyo phantsi komkhwa wokufakelwa kombane

Phantsi kwendlela yokufakelwa kombane, imfuno yamandla iye yatshintsha kancinci ukusuka kumandla emveli afana namafutha efosili ukuya kumandla ombane acocekileyo. Olu tshintsho lubonakala ekutshintsheni ukusuka kwizithuthi zefosili ukuya kwizithuthi zombane, uninzi lwazo olusebenza ngamandla ahlaziyekayo asasazwayo. Njengoko umbane ococekileyo uba ngamandla abaluleke ngakumbi, imfuno yokugcina amandla iya kuqhubeka ikhula ukusombulula iingxaki ezingapheliyo kunye nokulinganisela ukunikezelwa kunye nemfuno yombane.

4. Ukwehla kweendleko zokugcina umbane

Umyinge we-LCOE yehlabathi jikelele we-LCOE yokugcina amandla uye wehla ukusuka kwi-2.0 ukuya kwi-3.5 yuan/kWh ngo-2017 ukuya kwi-0.5 ukuya kwi-0.8 yuan/kWh ngo-2021, kwaye kulindeleke ukuba wehle ngakumbi uye kwi-[0.3 ukuya kwi-0.5 yuan/kWh ngo-2026. Ukwehla kweendleko zokugcina amandla kubangelwa ikakhulu yinkqubela phambili yetekhnoloji yebhetri, kubandakanya ukuphuculwa koxinano lwamandla, ukunciphisa iindleko zokuvelisa kunye nokwanda komjikelo wobomi bebhetri. Ukwehla okuqhubekayo kweendleko zokugcina amandla kuya kukhuthaza ukukhula kweshishini lokugcina amandla.

Ukuze ufumane ulwazi oluthe kratya, nceda ujonge kwiNgxelo yoPhando malunga neNtengiso yeMarike kunye namathuba oTyalo-mali kwiShishini lokuGcina Amandla leHlabathi elikhutshwe yiChina Commercial Industry Research Institute. Kwangaxeshanye, iChina Commercial Industry Research Institute ikwabonelela ngeenkonzo ezifana ne-industrial big data, i-industrial intelligence, ingxelo yophando lwemizi-mveliso, ucwangciso lwemizi-mveliso, ucwangciso lweepaki, iSicwangciso seMinyaka emihlanu yeShumi elinesine, utyalo-mali lwemizi-mveliso kunye nezinye iinkonzo.