Kufanotaura kwemusika wepasi rose wekuchengetedza simba muna 2023

China Bhizinesi Intelligence Network Nhau: Kuchengetedzwa kwesimba kunoreva kuchengetwa kwesimba remagetsi, iro rine hukama nehunyanzvi uye zviyero zvekushandisa kemikari kana nzira dzemuviri kuchengetedza simba remagetsi nekurisunungura kana richidikanwa. Maererano nenzira yekuchengetedza simba, simba rekuchengetedza simba rinogona kugoverwa mumagetsi ekuchengetedza simba, magetsi emagetsi ekuchengetedza simba, electrochemical energy storage, thermal energy storage uye chemikemikari simba rekuchengetedza.Energy kuchengetedza iri kuve imwe yezvigadzirwa zvakakosha zvinoshandiswa nenyika dzakawanda kusimudzira nzira yekusarerekera kabhoni. Kunyangwe pasi pekudzvinyirirwa kwehuviri hweCCIDID-19 denda uye kushomeka kweketani, musika wepasi rose wekuchengetera magetsi ucharamba uchiramba uchiwedzera kukura muna 2021. Iyo data inoratidza kuti pakupera kwa2021, iyo yakawedzera yakaiswa simba rekuchengetedza simba mapurojekiti akaiswa mukushanda munyika ndeye 209.4GW, yakakwira 9% gore negore; Pakati pavo, huwandu hwakaiswa hwemagetsi matsva ekuchengetedza mapurojekiti akaiswa mukushanda aive 18.3GW, yakakwira 185% gore negore. Zvichikanganiswa nekukwira kwemitengo yemagetsi muEurope, zvinotarisirwa kuti kudiwa kwesimba rekuchengetedza simba kucharamba kuchikura mumakore mashoma anotevera, uye kuwedzera kwakaiswa kwesimba rekuchengetedza simba mapurojekiti akaiswa mukushanda munyika achasvika 228.8GW muna 2023.

Indasitiri tarisiro

1. Favourable policy

Hurumende dzehupfumi hukuru dzakatora mitemo yekukurudzira kuvandudzwa kwekuchengetedza simba. Semuyenzaniso, muUnited States, iyo federal investimendi yemutero kiredhiti inopa mutero kiredhiti yekumisikidzwa kwemidziyo yekuchengetera simba nevashandisi vepamba nevemaindasitiri nevekutengesa. MuEU, iyo 2030 Battery Innovation Roadmap inosimbisa matanho akasiyana-siyana ekusimudzira nharaunda uye hukuru hukuru hwekuvandudza tekinoroji yekuchengetedza simba. MuChina, Chirongwa Chekuita Chekuvandudza KweMagetsi Itsva muChirongwa cheMakore Mashanu chakapihwa muna 2022 chakaisa pamberi pemitemo yakazara uye matanho ekusimudzira indasitiri yekuchengetedza simba kuti ipinde muchikamu chikuru chebudiriro.

2. Chikamu chesimba rakagadzikana mukugadzirwa kwemagetsi kuri kuwedzera

Sesimba remhepo, photovoltaic uye mamwe magadzirirwo emagetsi anotsamira zvakanyanya pane nharaunda yekugadzira magetsi, nekuwedzera zvishoma nezvishoma kwechikamu chesimba idzva semhepo uye simba rezuva, iyo simba system inopa kaviri-peak, yakapetwa-yakakwira uye yakapetwa-paviri mativi randomness, iyo inoisa kumberi kwepamusoro zvinodiwa kuchengetedzeka uye kugadzikana kwegidhi remagetsi, uye musika wakawedzera kudiwa kwekuchengetedza simba, peak- frequency kushanda. Kune rumwe rutivi, mamwe matunhu achiri kutarisana nechinetso chepamusoro-soro yechiedza uye kusiiwa kwemagetsi, zvakadai seQinghai, Inner Mongolia, Hebei, nezvimwewo. Nekuvakwa kwechikwata chitsva chemasimba makuru emhepo photovoltaic magetsi ekugadzira mabhesi, zvinotarisirwa kuti hukuru hwemagetsi matsva grid-yakabatana kugadzirwa kwemagetsi kuchaunza dambudziko guru pakushandiswa uye kushandiswa kwesimba idzva mune ramangwana. Chikamu chemagetsi emagetsi matsva emagetsi anotarisirwa kudarika 20% muna 2025. Kukurumidza kukura kwesimba idzva rakaiswa simba richaita kuti kuwedzera kwekuchengetedza simba kupere.

3. Kudiwa kwesimba kunoshanduka kune simba rakachena pasi pemaitiro ekugadzirisa magetsi

Pasi pemaitiro ekuiswa kwemagetsi, kudiwa kwesimba kwave kufamba zvishoma nezvishoma kubva kusimba rechinyakare semafuta efossil kuchenesa simba remagetsi. Kuchinja uku kunoratidzwa mukuchinja kubva kumotokari dzemafuta emafuta kuenda kumotokari dzemagetsi, mazhinji ayo anofambiswa nekuparidzirwa kwesimba rinowanikwazve. Sezvo magetsi akachena anowedzera uye akakosha simba, kudiwa kwesimba rekuchengetedza kucharamba kuchikwira kugadzirisa matambudziko ari pakati nepakati uye kuenzanisa kupa uye kudiwa kwemagetsi.

4. Kuderera kwemari yekuchengetedza simba

Avhareji yepasi rose yeLCOE yekuchengetedza simba yakadzikira kubva pa2.0 kuenda ku3.5 yuan/kWh muna 2017 kuenda ku0.5 kusvika 0.8 yuan/kWh muna 2021, uye inotarisirwa kuramba ichidzika kusvika [0.3 kusvika 0.5 yuan/kWh muna 2026. kudzikiswa kwemitengo yekugadzira uye kuwedzera kwehupenyu hwebhatiri. Kuramba kuderera kwemitengo yekuchengetedza simba kuchasimudzira kukura kweindasitiri yekuchengetedza simba.

Kuti uwane rumwe ruzivo, ndapota tarisa kuChirevo cheKutsvagisa paMusika Tarisiro uye Mikana Yekudyara yeGlobal Energy Storage Indasitiri yakaburitswa neChina Commercial Industry Research Institute. Panguva imwecheteyo, iyo China Commercial Indasitiri Research Institute inopawo masevhisi akadai sedata hombe remaindasitiri, hungwaru hwemaindasitiri, mushumo wekutsvagisa maindasitiri, kuronga kwemaindasitiri, kuronga kwepaki, Chirongwa cheMakore gumi nemana, kudyara kwemaindasitiri nemamwe masevhisi.