Te matapae mō te mākete rokiroki pūngao o te ao i te tau 2023

Ngā Pūrongo a te Whatunga Matauranga Pakihi o Haina: Ko te rokiroki pūngao e pā ana ki te rokiroki pūngao hiko, e pā ana ki te hangarau me ngā mehua o te whakamahi i ngā tikanga matū, ā-tinana rānei hei penapena i te pūngao hiko me te tuku atu ina hiahiatia. E ai ki te momo rokiroki pūngao, ka taea te wehewehe i te rokiroki pūngao ki te rokiroki pūngao miihini, te rokiroki pūngao hikohiko, te rokiroki pūngao hikohiko, te rokiroki pūngao wera me te rokiroki pūngao matū. Kei te noho te rokiroki pūngao hei tetahi o ngā hangarau matua e whakamahia ana e te maha o ngā whenua hei whakatairanga i te tukanga o te kore waro. Ahakoa i raro i te pēhanga takirua o te mate urutā COVID-19 me te korenga o te mekameka tuku, ka mau tonu te mākete rokiroki pūngao hou o te ao i te ia tipu teitei i te tau 2021. E whakaatu ana ngā raraunga i te mutunga o te tau 2021, ko te kaha tāuta katoa o ngā kaupapa rokiroki pūngao kua whakatinanahia ki te ao ko te 209.4GW, he pikinga 9% ia tau; I roto i aua mea, ko te kaha tāuta o ngā kaupapa rokiroki pūngao hou kua whakatinanahia ki te mahi ko te 18.3GW, he pikinga 185% ia tau. Nā te pikinga o ngā utu pūngao i Ūropi, e matapaetia ana ka piki haere tonu te hiahia mō te rokiroki pūngao i ngā tau torutoru e whai ake nei, ā, ka eke te kaha tāuta katoa o ngā kaupapa rokiroki pūngao kua whakatinanahia i te ao ki te 228.8GW i te tau 2023.

Te tirohanga ahumahi

1. Ngā kaupapa here pai

Kua whakatinanahia e ngā kāwanatanga o ngā ōhanga nui ngā kaupapa here hei whakatenatena i te whanaketanga o te rokiroki pūngao. Hei tauira, i te Hononga o Amerika, ka whakaratohia e te nama taake haumi ā-motu te nama taake mō te tāutanga o ngā taputapu rokiroki pūngao e ngā kaiwhakamahi mutunga whare me ngā ahumahi me ngā arumoni. I te EU, e whakanui ana te Mahere Auaha Pūhiko 2030 i ngā mahi maha hei whakaoho i te whanaketanga ā-rohe me te whanaketanga nui o te hangarau rokiroki pūngao. I Haina, i whakatakotohia e te Mahere Whakatinanatanga mō te Whakawhanaketanga o te Rokiroki Pūngao Hou i roto i te Mahere Rima-Tau 14 i whakaputaina i te tau 2022 ngā kaupapa here whānui me ngā mahi hei whakatairanga i te umanga rokiroki pūngao kia uru ki tētahi wāhanga whanaketanga nui.

2. Kei te piki haere te wāhi o te pūngao pumau ki te whakaputa hiko

I te mea he nui te whakawhirinaki o te mana hau, te photovoltaic me ētahi atu momo whakaputa mana ki te taiao whakaputa mana, me te piki haere o te ōwehenga o te pūngao hou pēnei i te hau me te pūngao o te rā, ka whakaatuhia e te pūnaha mana he rua-tihi, he rua-teitei me te rua-taha matapōkere, e whakatairanga ana i ngā whakaritenga teitei ake mō te haumaru me te pumau o te whatunga hiko, ā, kua piki ake te hiahia o te mākete mō te rokiroki pūngao, te heu tihi, te whakarerekētanga auau, me te mahi pumau. I tētahi atu taha, kei te raru tonu ētahi rohe i te tere teitei o te whakarērea o te mārama me te hiko, pēnei i a Qinghai, Mongolia o Roto, Hebei, me ētahi atu. Mā te hanganga o tētahi puranga hou o ngā turanga whakaputa mana photovoltaic mana hau nui, e matapaetia ana ka nui ake te pēhanga o te whakaputa mana e hono ana ki te whatunga pūngao hou nui ki te kai me te whakamahi i te pūngao hou a meake nei. E matapaetia ana ka neke atu te ōwehenga o te whakaputa mana pūngao hou ā-rohe i te 20% i te tau 2025. Ko te tipu tere o te kaha whakauru pūngao hou ka akiaki i te pikinga o te urunga rokiroki pūngao.

3. Ka huri te hiahia mō te pūngao ki te hiko ma i raro i te ia o te hiko

I raro i te ia o te hiko, kua neke haere te hiahia mō te pūngao mai i te pūngao tuku iho pērā i ngā wahie pūmua ki te pūngao hiko ma. Ka kitea tēnei nekehanga i roto i te nekehanga mai i ngā waka wahie pūmua ki ngā waka hiko, he maha o ēnei e whakamahia ana te pūngao whakahou tohatoha. I te mea ka nui haere te hiranga o te hiko ma, ka piki haere tonu te hiahia mō te rokiroki pūngao hei whakaoti rapanga wā poto me te whakataurite i te tuku me te hiahia mō te hiko.

4. Te whakahekenga o te utu rokiroki pūngao

Kua heke te toharite o te LCOE o te ao mō te rokiroki pūngao mai i te 2.0 ki te 3.5 yuan/kWh i te tau 2017 ki te 0.5 ki te 0.8 yuan/kWh i te tau 2021, ā, e matapaetia ana ka heke anō ki te [0.3 ki te 0.5 yuan/kWh i te tau 2026. Ko te hekenga o ngā utu rokiroki pūngao te take nui o te ahunga whakamua o te hangarau pākahiko, tae atu ki te whakapai ake i te kiato pūngao, te whakaiti i ngā utu hanga me te whakapiki ake i te huringa ora o te pākahiko. Mā te hekenga tonu o ngā utu rokiroki pūngao ka whakaoho i te tipu o te umanga rokiroki pūngao.

Mō ētahi atu kōrero, tirohia te Pūrongo Rangahau mō te Tirohanga Mākete me ngā Huarahi Hāumi o te Ahumahi Rokiroki Pūngao o te Ao i tukuna e te China Commercial Industry Research Institute. I taua wā anō, ka whakaratohia hoki e te China Commercial Industry Research Institute ngā ratonga pēnei i te raraunga nui ahumahi, te mātauranga ahumahi, te pūrongo rangahau ahumahi, te whakamahere ahumahi, te whakamahere papa, te Mahere Tau Rima Tekau mā Whā, te haumi ahumahi me ētahi atu ratonga.